Note that these stats are from 2009
The Cheltenham Festival is one of the main highlights of the British horseracing year yet it remains one of the most challenging for punters. Confronted with large fields of generally high quality and well-prepared horses, Cheltenham annually proves a difficult nut to crack for both professional bettors and enthusiasts alike.
As in most forms of gambling, selectivity is the key and this short report will create a winner’s profile from the last ten years for each race. This betting guide covers Day One of the Cheltenham Festival.
This information should serve as a starting point to flag potential betting opportunities – as always, carry out a full racing analysis before spending your money.
Cheltenham Day One (Tuesday 16th March)
1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
• Won at least 50% of hurdle starts = 100%
• Pre-race RPR of at least 132 = 90%
• Ran within last 45 days = 90%
• Won last time out = 90%
• Rated within 12lb of RPR top-rated = 80%
• Previously contested a Graded race = 70%
• Irish winners in last 10 years = 70%
• Return on backing favourites = +£1.25
• Fate of Favourites = 2U31110532
• Position of winner in market = 2251110204
2009 : Go Native Won 12/1
2:05 Arkle Challenge Trophy
• No more than 5 runs over fences = 100%
• SP no bigger than 11/1 = 100%
• Won novice chase over 2m to 2m1f = 90%
• Aged 5 to 7 = 90%
• Pre-race RPR of at least 144 = 80%
• Ran within last 35 days = 30%
• Finished in first two on all completed chase starts = 90%
• Rated within 12lb of RPR top-rated = 90%
• RPR Hurdle Rating of at least 143 = 80%
• Irish winners in last 10 years = 10%
• Return on backing favourites = -£7.75
• Fate of Favourites = 05321F0023
• Position of winner in market = 3744152522
2009 : Forpadydeplasterer Won 8/1
2:40 William Hill Trophy Handicap
• 5 to 11 runs over fences = 70%
• SP between 11-2 and 10-1 = 80%
• Won over at least 3m = 90%
• Aged 7 to 10 = 100%
• Officially rated 127-143 = 80%
• Ran no more than 4 times that season = 70%
• Won handicap chase at Class 3 or higher = 90%
• Top-four finish last time out = 70%
• Carried no more than 10st 12lb = 90%
• Finished in top 3 in either or both of last 2 starts = 80%
• Irish winners in last 10 years = 20%
• Return on backing favourites = -£10.00
• Fate of Favourites = 3F26300P23
• Position of winner in market = 7034345203
2009 : Wichita Lineman Won 5/1
3:20 Champion Hurdle
• Ran within previous 51 days = 100%
• Aged between 6 and 9 = 90%
• Won last time out = 90%
• Won either Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 handicap hurdle = 90%
• 9 to 25 runs over hurdles = 90%
• Previous festival winner = 90%
• Won Grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season = 80%
• Topspeed rating of at least 152
• Rated within 7lb of RPR top-rated = 80%
• Irish winners = 70%
• Return on backing favourites = +£2.97
• Fate of Favourites = 111P321160
• Position of winner in market = 1114201165
2009 : Punjabi Won 22/1
4:00 Cross Country Handicap Chase*
• Won 1 of last 2 starts = 100%
• Winner of cross-country race at either Cheltenham or Punchestown = 100%
• Won over at least 3 miles = 100%
• Officially rated 126-129 = 75%
• Carried no more than 10st 13lb = 75%
• Irish trained winners = 100%
• Return on backing favourites = +£1.75
• Fate of Favourites = F116
• Position of winner in market = 2112
*Based on previous 4 years.
2009 : Garde Champetre Won 7/2
4:40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
This was only the second year of running this race so no meaningful statistics were available.
2209 : Quevega 2/1 fav
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